The first leg finished level at 1:1, which keeps the tie very much alive. Anderlecht had the edge but did not convert it into a win. The tie will now be decided in Greece, where the hosts are traditionally strong; however, the statistics suggest that breaching the visitors’ defence more than once will be extremely difficult.
AEK Athens beat Panserraikos (2:0) in the latest league round with 74% possession. On average, they have scored fewer than one goal per game in European competition in recent seasons, while producing few shots on target. At home the Greeks keep a balance: across their last 10 home fixtures they have recorded six wins, one draw and three defeats.
Anderlecht look the more balanced unit. In the first leg they enjoyed more possession (56%) and led shots on target (10-5). Kasper Dolberg stands out in attack with five goals across his last 10 matches, alongside the experienced Thorgan Hazard. The Belgians have won six of their past 10 matches and have averaged more than two goals scored. Defensively, Anderlecht do make errors, but they maintain overall balance and are rarely beaten comprehensively.
AEK Athens may lack the attacking resources to unlock the Belgians’ defence twice. Anderlecht are dangerous on quick counter-attacks and at free kicks and corners, and their leading players are in excellent form. The likely game script is cautious: the hosts will see plenty of the ball but will create few clear chances. The optimal play is AEK Athens total under 1.5 goals. The scoreboard could show a draw or a narrow Anderlecht win.
